Scientific Perspectives

¨You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before¨ 

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Rahm Emanuel, Chief of Staff to President Barack Obama, 2008

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No one would have wanted for carbon emissions to be reduced this way, but it is happening. However, what will occur when the coronavirus-wracked global economy starts to recover? The expected massive economic stimulus could propel a greener growth, or can further delay climate action. We cannot miss this opportunity to move the global economy away from a high emissions trajectory.

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The new coronavirus pandemic is primarily a human tragedy. As of April 10th, 2020, it has infected more than 1, 500,000 and killed more than 93,000 people. The pandemic has brought widespread job losses and threatened the livelihoods of millions, especially the most vulnerable.

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As countries try to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, pollution and greenhouse gas emissions have fallen across the globe. Estimates show that COVID-19 crisis is set to cause the largest ever annual fall in CO2 emissions in 2020. This is more than during any previous economic crisis or period of war.[1] Electricity demand has declined by near 15% in most economies that have taken strong containment measures, mainly as a result of industries and businesses pausing operations.[2] In New York, levels of carbon monoxide mostly from cars had been reduced by nearly 50% compared with last year.[3] In China, emissions fell 25% at the start of the year as people were in lockdown.[4]

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This is not the first time that a crisis has an impact on the levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Throughout history, the spread of diseases has been linked to lower emissions, even before the industrial age[5]. In fact, the environmental impacts that we are evidencing are similar to the observed in the financial crash of 2008 and 2009[6]. This financial crisis led to a fall of CO2 emissions of 1.3% in 2008 in developed countries, but rapidly increased by 3.4% in 2010.[7]

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What can we do to sustain this decrease in emissions? The behavioral changes taking place around the world may be sustained beyond the current coronavirus pandemic, leading to lasting habits[8]. Some examples are that people are traveling substantially less, reducing food waste[9], and telecommuting from home. These behavioral changes can support a more sustainable future. But this is not enough.

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Securing a green economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will require deliberate policy measures from international organizations and governments. The critical question is whether the massive sums that countries will spend to stimulate their economies will help to reduce emissions or to increase them. Governments are deploying enormous amounts to boost the global economy. On April 2nd the World Bank announced an economic program that would provide up to $160 billion over the next 15 months to developing countries[10]. G20 leaders released a statement that they will inject $5 trillion into the global economy, as part of economic measures to counteract the impacts of the pandemic.[11]

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Today green investment options that are cost-effective are plentiful. Compared to the financial crisis in 2008-2009, a green recovery seems possible. Evidence shows that low-carbon growth is the best way to have long-term economic and social benefits[12]. Deep investment in renewable energy projects and green infrastructure would increase jobs in the short term and, in the longer term, create a decarbonized economy[13]. The cost of renewables is now below that of fossil fuels. Targeted green infrastructure projects such as public transportation, create more jobs than conventional projects as building roads.[14]

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The consequences of not integrating a green focus on the recovery is not only worsening the climate crisis, but it will also increase the likelihood of more pandemics. Deforestation, biodiversity loss, and climate change make pandemics more likely[15].This is especially relevant in the spread of zoonotic diseases[16]as the most evidence points that COVID-19 is. Additionally, it is expected that global warming will accelerate the emergence of new viruses and accelerate the spread of existent[17].

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This historic opportunity for a structural change towards a greener economy cannot be missed. The COVID-19 pandemic is evidencing how the world is connected and reminded us of our vulnerabilities. If a lesson can be applied to the climate crises, it is the power of a coordinated community response. We should not recover from an economic crisis to exacerbate another.

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References

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[1] Evans, S. (2020) Coronavirus set to cause largest ever annual fall in CO2 emissions. Carbon Brief. Recovered: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-set-to-cause-largest-ever-annual-fall-in-co2-emissions

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[2] Birol, F. (2020) The coronavirus crisis reminds us that electricity is more indispensable than ever. International Energy Agency. France. Recovered: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/the-coronavirus-crisis-reminds-us-that-electricity-is-more-indispensable-than-ever

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[3] McGrath, M (2020) Coronavirus: Air pollution and CO2 fall rapidly as virus spreads. BBC. UK. Recovered: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51944780

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[4] Myllyvirta, L. (2020) Coronavirus temporarily reduced China’s CO2 emissions by a quarter. Carbon Brief. Recovered: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-has-temporarily-reduced-chinas-co2-emissions-by-a-quarter

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[5] Henriques, M. (2020) Will Covid-19 have a lasting impact on the environment?. UK. Recovered: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200326-covid-19-the-impact-of-coronavirus-on-the-environment

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[6] Henriques, M. (2020) Will Covid-19 have a lasting impact on the environment?. UK. Recovered: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200326-covid-19-the-impact-of-coronavirus-on-the-environment 

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[7] Peters, G. P., Marland, G., Le Quéré, C., Boden, T., Canadell, J. G., & Raupach, M. R. (2012). Rapid growth in CO 2 emissions after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. Nature climate change, 2(1), 2-4.

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[8] Henriques, M. (2020) Will Covid-19 have a lasting impact on the environment?. UK. Recovered: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200326-covid-19-the-impact-of-coronavirus-on-the-environment

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[9] Henriques, M. (2020) Will Covid-19 have a lasting impact on the environment?. UK. Recovered: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200326-covid-19-the-impact-of-coronavirus-on-the-environment

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[10] World Bank (2020) The World Bank Group Moves Quickly to Help Countries Respond to COVID-19. USA. Recovered: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2020/04/02/the-world-bank-group-moves-quickly-to-help-countries-respond-to-covid-19

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[11]G20 (2020) Extraordinary G20 Leaders’ Summit Statement on COVID-19. Recovered:

https://g20.org/en/media/Documents/G20_Extraordinary%20G20%20Leaders%E2%80%99%20Summit_Statement_EN%20(3).pdf

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[12] Mountford, H. (2020) Responding to Coronavirus: Low-carbon Investments Can Help Economies Recover. World Resources Institute. USA. Recovered:

https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/03/coronavirus-economy-low-carbon-investments

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[13]Worland, J. (2020) What Coronavirus Means for the Possibility of a Carbon-Free Economy. USA. Recovered:https://time.com/5808581/coronavirus-green-stimulus/

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[14] Tollefson, J (2020) Climate vs coronavirus: Why massive stimulus plans could represent missed opportunities. Recovered: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00941-5

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[15] European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. (2020) COVID-19: From shock to recovery Regional Economic prospectus. April 2020. UK.

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[16] Disease originating from pathogens that transfer from animals to humans.

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[17] United Nations (2020) Flagship UN study shows accelerating climate change on land, sea and in the atmosphere.Recovered: https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/03/1059061

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